Thanks everyone for visiting and soon we will be working on our NFL Mock Draft to get us ready for who might be next seasons Doug Martin or Alfred Morris. Just kidding, nobody saw him coming. I mean Evan Royster was a hot commodity starting in like in the 6^th rounds of drafting. Maybe those people I think are crazy by drafting a defense in that spot are on to something. Just kidding, that’s a terrible strategy.

Since this is it for a while, let’s get some television house-cleaning out of the way. The Walking Dead returns in February so you still have time to either start the series or just re-watch how awesome season 3 unfolded so far. Then at the end of March, Game of Thrones returns for the third season. There is absolutely no reason to not have a dress-up party for this occasion. I know I will. Remember – what is dead may never die.

Below I have picks for the side and total as well as multiple prop bets. Should keep us occupied for the whole game at least while everyone else is really pumped up about squares.

On to the picks!

Playoff record (12-7)

NFL

SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 vs. Ravens –  Dance with the one that brought ya. I have been on the Niners all season so no reason to have a change of heart now. I like Colin K. to run wild on a Ravens defense that has struggled to contain anyone all year. Despite their showing against Atlanta, the Niners have superior defensive talent here. The real wildcards will be Crabtree and Davis who should be the difference makers. Also, I just plain don’t like the Ravens and hope they lose. Bad. Like the rest of America, I just hope Anthony Dixon gets into the game to make a play.

SAN FRANCISCO/ATLANTA OVER 47 – On the turf in the Dome, no reason this shouldn’t go over the total. In a playoffs that has been dominated by the OVER, I don’t see the Ravens with the ability to hold the Niners down. I honestly see a 31-17 type game and the Ravens scoring coming late. But hey, they have surprised me all season so I’m sure they will be up 14-0 after the first three minutes. Plus, no one wants to take the UNDER at a Super Bowl party. It’s not cool.

San Francisco -10.5 +270

Total rushing yards by Colin Kaepernick – OVER 51

What will happen first for Baltimore Ravens – Punt -170

Kaepernick 1st rushing attempt in game will be – Over 5′ yards -125

Last Accepted Penalty in game will be  – Delay of game +400

Total pass receptions made by Frank Gore – Over 1′ -130

Will Frank Gore score a touchdown in the game -Yes -120

Will there be more points scored in – 2nd half + OT -½ points -105

What will happen for the 1st coaches challenge – Overturned -115

Will there be a score in 1st 7min 30sec of 1st quarter – No +135

RANDY MOSS (SF) FIRST RECEPTION
(If No Reception-Under is the winner) – UNDER 11.5 -120

LAST SCORE OF THE GAME WILL BE:
TOUCHDOWN -200
ANY OTHER SCORE +175

TOTAL MADE THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS BY: 49ERS
**(3rd Down Conversion by Penalty does not count)
OVER 5.0 +120

Torrey Smith long rec OVER 27.5 yards -120

Ray Rice Rush Attempts – UNDER 17.5 -120

Vernon Davis OVER 3.5 receptions -120

Vernon Davis TD +160

Good luck!

If you gave me the situation before the game that Denver was up 7 points and Joe Flacco had to take the Ravens down the entire field in one minute, I would have gladly been in that situation. I’ve seen numerous talk about Peyton Manning, John Fox etc. but the bottom line is the Broncos had a seven point lead at the end of the game everyone had done a good enough job to that point.

But then disaster happened. Much has been made of the absolutely terrible play of Rahim Moore on the ball that would eventually be the equalizing score. Don’t get me wrong, that was world-class bad safety play. But here’s the thing: At that point in the game basically only a hail-mary type of play beats you. The ball Flacco threw to Jacoby Jones wasn’t a strike, it was a rain-maker that was exactly like a prayer. As I re-watched the play this week, one thing sticks out to me. Why is Moore the only player back deep? Are you telling me that the design was to have 1-on-1 coverage of deep balls? Offenses pray for those kind of odds in that situation. Adams (the corner) peels back before the ball is in the air. Why? There is no reason everyone isn’t playing deep. While I think Moore deserves much blame, I find fault with the whole approach and haven’t seen much criticism of the scheme. We didn’t bring a blitz but somehow we didn’t have more than 1 person back deep to each side. It still hurts but look on the bright side, we all got one extra hour of Dan Dierdorf because of the overtime.

The first playoff weekend every game went UNDER the total. Last weekend every game went OVER the total. Favorites and dogs split at 2-2. With this much on the line, I think both games will get tight and we’ll see lower-scoring affairs so I’m siding with both UNDERS since I don’t think they both lose. I’m also disappointed that we were denied (IMO) better matchups of Seattle/SF and DEN/NE. As I said last week, I love playoff football but this weekend isn’t as exciting as the last two to me.

On to the picks!

Playoff record (11-5)

NFL

SAN FRANCISCO -4 vs. Falcons – If you have followed me at all this year, you know I don’t believe in Atlanta. Despite winning last week (and not covering), they were out-played nearly the entire game at home. All that changes this week is the visiting team is even better. I saw a quote from a Falcon defensive player a few days ago talking about how tired they were chasing Russell Wilson around. Good luck with that against this Kaepernick guy buddy. The main difference is that whatever magic spell Michael Turner used to look decent last week will not fly against the Niners defense. I grabbed SF-3 as soon as it came out and thought it might go higher than the -4 it has currently landed at most of the week. Brace yourselves, the Niners in the Superbowl is most definitely happening.

SAN FRANCISCO/ATLANTA UNDER 49 – I actually feel pretty good about this UNDER cashing. Neither team will want a shootout and these naturally conservative coaches will go full “clenched butt-cheek” mode with a Super Bowl birth on the line. You saw what Mike Smith tried to do last week when he had a lead. Both teams will want to establish a run.

NEW ENGLAND -8 vs. Ravens – I honestly can’t believe what I’m seeing in the world. No one bet on the Ravens when they played the Colts two weeks ago. Even less people wanted to bet on the Ravens last week when they traveled to Denver. Yet somehow, people can’t bet on the Ravens fast enough heading to Foxboro. I don’t care that Gronk is hurt. I don’t care that Flacco looked capable last week. What I care about is the ability of New England to find ways to score and their defense to make stops when it counts. I realize my utter disdain for the Ravens right now may be slanting this selection but I see a decisive Patriots win.

NEW ENGLAND/BALTIMORE UNDER 51 vs. Broncos – I don’t think ole Bill B is going to let the Ravens continue their resurgent offensive ways. As I mentioned earlier, the UNDER is unpopular in these situations and I’ll take my chances. The Patriots tried playing a boring, low-scoring game against Houston in the first quarter. I think that lasts for most of the game this week. Let’s root for punts!

Good luck!

First weekend of the playoffs are in the books and everyone is who we thought they were. All four favorites covered. Not a huge surprise since the wild card teams were pretty weak this year. All four games went UNDER the total. This points more to the fact that the league’s best offenses had a bye and the teams that could score points were playing teams that didn’t need to pour it on to win.

Traditionally on this weekend, bettors tend to over-inflate the teams they saw play last week over the home teams on byes. Combine that with usually higher lines and you get a recipe ripe for everyone backing underdogs. That isn’t quite the case this season with only the Green Bay Packers being a popular underdog pick, followed by the Seahawks who are then followed by the Texans. Another interesting case is books usually take some measure to protect themselves against teases but this year the lines for Denver and New England have remained stable. I would think that numerous Denver/NE teases will be in play this weekend.

I am backing three favorites and three overs this weekend since I think the better competition will force more scoring. I personally can’t wait for the Denver game and forgot how exciting it can be to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. No, last year’s team didn’t feel that way.

One last note – I can’t recommend the FX series ARCHER enough. New season premiers next week so you still have time to watch it online or on Netflix on-demand. It has inappropriate humor, hot cartoons and spy-thriller storylines. I don’t know what more you could want in a 22 minute television show. Maybe other than puppies. Puppies make everything better.

On to the picks!

Playoff Record (5-3)

NFL

DENVER -9.5 vs. Ravens – I have plenty of Ravens hate. I dislike their players, scheme, coach and their colors. I’m not even going to pretend this is objective. What has changed since Denver went to Baltimore almost a month ago? Ravens got some D players healthy. I still fail to see how they will score consistently. When your only real option is Dennis Pita, it’s time to question backing them. God help Flacco if they get behind. Also, ESPN should try harder to find a story than Peyton Manning in cold weather. Also FYI, the temperature is now expected to be in the fifties and sunny for the game. #UnitedinOrange

DENVER/BALTIMORE OVER 46.5 – Denver defense averages giving up 18 ppg this year. I question if BAL even reaches that number Saturday but I have no doubts that Denver gets in the 30’s. The math makes this an OVER bet. The first game sailed over the total thanks to a big Denver early lead. Denver knows their best chance to win is be aggressive to get a lead and then let their pass rushers tee off on Flacco.

SAN FRANCISCO -3 vs. Packers – This was the toughest game of the weekend for me to cap. It all came down to strengths and weaknesses. After looking at the Niner’s losses this year, they all came to stud RBs that wore down their defense. This is not the Packers. When in doubt in the playoffs, I want the team that can run the ball and can stop the run. The fact that SF is at home puts it over the top. Everything I read is Packers and from a QB standpoint, it makes sense. However, I don’t think he can do it all alone. Don’t forget the kickers in this game.

SAN FRANCISCO/GREEN BAY OVER 44.5 – This matchup projects to be a great game that will come down to the fourth quarter. Of all my total plays this weekend, this one comes out as my strongest. San Francisco should score pretty easily against Green Bay and I have no doubt Rogers will guide Green Bay to points. I see a 27-21 type game. Much like the pick of SF above, this all is dependent on Kaepernick making solid decisions and playing well.

SEATTLE +3 vs. Falcons – In the last 14 games on Divisional weekend, 8 times the #1 seed has lost. This week that would be Denver and Atlanta so obviously my pick to fall is Atlanta. The only reason I would back Atlanta is if I truly believe that Matt Ryan will pick apart the Seahawks all day. I agree that Seattle will not have much of a pass rush however they are strong enough in pass coverage/run stopping to make up for it IMO. Like I said earlier, I’m backing the team that can run the ball and can stop the run. The liability known as Michael Turner will make the Falcons one-dimensional, thus allowing Seattle to force some punts.

SEATTLE/ATLANTA OVER 46 – Without a pass rush, Ryan will be able to do some things especially with Tony Gonzalez. I have no lack of faith in Seattle putting up points against an easily-moveable ATL front seven. Russell Wilson didn’t set the world on fire last week and missed some big plays. If he connects on one or two of those, that will open things up even more for Lynch.

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 vs. Texans – I think this game will be closer than the first game, which isn’t saying a whole lot. I don’t think that the Texans will be a threat to win. The Texans just aren’t that good and New England with Gronk is on a different level. Trust me, as a Bronco fan I wish the Texans would win this game but there is no way. The Pats will scheme to take away Foster and that is the only way Houston can win. They aren’t built to play from behind and their quarterback has shown nothing for putting a team on his shoulders for a half and will them to scores.

NEW ENGLAND/HOUSTON UNDER 47.5 – With the Texans trying to run the ball frequently, the Patriots actually will run the ball to kill the clock in the second half of games. This is the highest total on the board and one I like to stay low since it will be a comfortable margin most of the game. I think New England makes a concerted effort to be balanced.

Good luck!

Before getting into the plays, I decided to take a look back at some preseason predictions I made. In August, I played several NFL team totals and divisional winners. You can see the article RIGHT HERE.

Out of nine picks, I got seven of them right. I successfully cashed in on the disappointing seasons of the Chiefs, Lions, Steelers, Jets and Saints. I also had a feeling about the rise of the Seahawks as well as the Texans dominating. However I had high hopes for the Bills this year that never materialized. One bet I didn’t mind losing was my Broncos UNDER wins. I thought the schedule set up worse than it turned out and it would take longer for Peyton Manning to become superhuman. Clearly, I underestimated and couldn’t be happier about it.

Rationale for this week is simple: Whoever wins the game usually covers the spread. Next week we will start to see the double-digit spreads but this week is filled with softer lines. These aren’t for the faint of heart, only the bold and the brave. Just like Batman. The animated series or Adam West style, either one will apply.

On to the picks!

NFL

CINCINNATI +4.5 vs. Texans – Perhaps it’s time we all just take a long, hard look in the mirror and say to ourselves “The Texans kinda suck” until it sinks in. What about how they have played makes me want to lay the points? Nothing. If they do win, I think it will be by a few points. Give me the team that no one seems to be discussing with the best player on the field not named Arian.

CINCINNATI/HOUSTON UNDER 43 – The only team worse than the Texans at scoring in the past five games is the Bengals. This will be a game that features both runningbacks extensively. I can’t imagine either one wanting a shoot-out.

GREEN BAY -8 vs. Vikings – Yes I’m aware of what happened last week. No, I don’t care about that outcome. That was the Viking’s Superbowl. Let them pull it off against the Pack at home with a healthy WR corp. Don’t think that last year isn’t in Green Bay’s head.

GREEN BAY/MINNESOTA OVER 46 – I can just see Rogers picking apart the Viking secondary this week. This one will fly over the total, don’t even worry about it. The Vikings will get theirs as well but I just know the Packers will get 30+.

BALTIMORE -7 vs. Colts –  Probably the most controversial pick of the week. Have you heard Ray Lewis is retiring? I have about fifty times every hour. Talk about a player that revamped his image. I love Luck but I’m not trusting him or his team in this spot. Mostly I don’t want Peyton to have to play the Colts next week.

BALTIMORE/INDY  OVER 47 – Having to trust Joe Flacco in one bet is bad enough, but with two it’s downright insane. The Colts defense is nothing to write home about and I do think their offense will score enough to put it over the total. Ray Rice has been too quiet for too long.

SEATTLE -3 vs. Redskins – I hate taking a road favorite in a playoff spot, but I have to side with the better team. The Seattle defense is much better than the Redskin’s defense. I also don’t trust Pete Carroll in this situation but I don’t have much of a choice.

SEATTLE/WASHINGTON UNDER 46 – Even though they have far exceeded expectations, I think for the playoffs the game plan will be to lean heavily on the run games. Even the passes will be to limit possible mistakes. This total feels the most inflated of all the games this weekend.

Good luck!

Season record (63-56-4)

Last week (3-6-1)

Like betting on preseason games? Then you are going to LOVE this week in the NFL. There is little rhyme or reason, you don’t know which teams are going to trot out starters or their season ticket holders and the lines are backwards.

God help you if you are playing in a fantasy league with Week 17 as your championship game. Why even bother? Instead of a playoff bracket, you should get a big wheel with everyone’s name on it, spin it and let it pick the winner. It’s roughly the same thing. I’m not even joking. With all of the planning, skill, strategy etc. it takes to win a league then you are going to leave it all up to playoff seeding to decide your fate. It’s madness.

If there ever was a week to take lightly, it’s this one. To reflect that, I have my fewest number of games picked this year. I also want to ramp up for one of my favorite betting occasions – the NFL playoffs. I’ll have sides and totals for each game.

Hope everyone out there is having a good holiday. Looking forward to what the next year brings.

On to the picks!

NFL

DALLAS +3.5 vs. Redskins – Like the feeling of a snuggie on a chilly, winter day – I really like having the hook here. I’d buy it if the line goes down to an even three. Too much on the line here for Dallas not to give their best effort. It’s not like Tony Romo to let us down in a high-pressured situation! He’s money in the bank.

NEW YORK JETS +3.5 vs. Bills – If you believe any press is good press, you have to tip your cap to the job of the Jets this season. Despite not making the playoffs and being a circus for most of the year, they are the talk of the NFL week in and week out. They even have their own ESPN bottomline scroll icon. In the past, Sanchez does very well vs. the Bills. Something tells me they will get back in the news again.

PHILADELPHIA +7 vs. Giants – I’m willing to poke myself in the face with a branding iron one last time by backing the money-burners known as the Eagles. I’m taking the chance that these players (especially Vick) have some proving to do for jobs next year around the league. It also seems as if the Giants have completely quit.

MIAMI +10 vs. Patriots – This pick is based upon my next pick. I expect Houston to beat the Colts, therefore the later starting Patriots will have nothing to play for an it will be a backup battle. The line should plummet before gametime and grabbing the Fins at double-digits now provides good value and a nice hedging opportunity if that’s your thing.

HOUSTON -7 vs. Colts – I know there is a lot of talk about the Colts giving it their all and playing hard, but I don’t see it. There is no reason for them to play their starters all game. Even with the coach coming back, it’s all about next week. I’m taking the team that has something big to win. As a Bronco fan, I will gladly trade this pick for a loss so Denver can get #1 seed but I don’t see it happening.

Good luck!

Season record (60-50-3)

Last week (6-3)

Entering the home stretch now. Of course I’m talking about Christmas-themed commercials. Ever notice how many car commercials there are for the holidays. I’ve never heard of anyone I know surprising someone with a vehicle on Christmas day. Seems like the type of purchase that would be difficult to keep quiet or secret. Even worse, what if you aren’t positive of the exact car the person wants. Kind of a big deal that you’ll use a lot so you might want to get it right.

Then there is the assortment of Christmas movies on cable most every night. Each year studios put out garbage like Four Christmases or Surviving Christmas in hopes that it becomes a yearly staple. Of course they almost always fail. There aren’t but a handful of movies that you have to re-watch each year. These include: Home Alone (only the original); Love Actually; Elf; Christmas Vacation; It’s a Wonderful Life (original); Bad Santa. The rest is merely a waste of your time.

Enough Christmas talk, as I noted last week the lines change the last three weeks. This week there are more large favorites than any other week of the year. This is the time of the year the books stuff their stockings so we aren’t going to fall down that chimney trap. Of course, this means taking terrible teams which you’ll see in my picks.

On to the picks!

NFL

DETROIT +3.5 vs. Falcons – The Lions have been as disappointing as guys who run out and buy that phone that lets you touch another phone and get a video. All because of that one commercial where the hot wife gives a video to the husband as he’s getting into a cab. That will never happen to you in real life and just give up on that fantasy already.

JACKSONVILLE +14.5 vs. Patriots – I’m only on the second pick and the sides I’m choosing are giving me a low-grade fever. I know trap games are big in college football but do they exist in the NFL? I’m not sure but if there ever was one, it’s Patriots at Jags after they hosted the Texans and Niners in back-to-back primetime games.

PHILADELPHIA +6.5 vs. Redskins – Was on the Skins last week, ready to jump ship this week. Thinking of starting Foles in a league over Garbage Time Carson Palmer. I know what you are thinking, yes this is in a consolation bracket championship. Nothing wrong with still #grinding to get your entry fee back people.

CLEVELAND +13.5 vs. Broncos – I know my team and this will be a low-scoring, ugly affair that Denver will not really be threatened but not push the envelope really. Couldn’t be more excited about controlling our own destiny for the #2 seed but the team will try to make it through these last two home games as quick as possible and injury-free.

HOUSTON -7.5 vs. Vikings – Just like last week, the Texans are laying a big number at home. Just like last week no one wanted to bet on them. Just like last week, I’ll lay it and be done with it. It will cash yet again. Of course it needed it a pretty well-timed late field-goal to make that happen but I’m keeping it positive this week.

CHICAGO -5 vs. Cardinals – Hey! It’s a road-favorite. The Bears are better than the Cardinals and need to win. This applies to a lot of games this week but it’s the only one I’m willing to back with actual dollars.

PITTSBURGH -3.5 vs. Bengals – I don’t care how banged up the Steeler D is, I don’t want any part of Big Ben in the playoffs. They will take care of business at home though against a so-so CIN team. You know what would be a good idea? If fans in PIT had towels to wave. Maybe they could be yellow. I’ll send an email to their gameday operations.

OAKLAND +9 vs. Panthers – I already live in a world where NBC’s CHICAGO FIRE is still on the air, I can’t possibly take one where the Panthers are almost double-digit favorites. I just can’t. I don’t care how well Cam has been playing. I will not be a part of this farce.

KANSAS CITY +7 vs. Colts – The Colts have been pretty bad on the road all year against the spread, I’ll just keep going against them. Even the Chiefs have a good game every now and then. You can run on the Colts so we’ll have that going for us. It isn’t much though.

NEW ORLEANS +3 vs. Cowboys – Everyone back on the Cowboys bandwagon? Then it’s time to bet against them. When they need it most, they come through the least. And I’m getting a team that hates the world and can score points. Never a bad combination.

Good luck!

This year it was most difficult for the top spot because nothing clearly stood out to me unlike past winners The Decemberists HAZARDS OF LOVE, Arcade Fire THE SUBURBS and last year’s Felice Brothers CELEBRATION, FLORIDA. It helps me to put it all out on paper to add up all the hard work of listening to music while I’m either working or supposed to be working.

Feel free to let me know your thoughts if you would like. If we can’t discuss my personal taste in music, then we might as well just move to Libya and sell North America to some Tokyo businessmen. Merry Christmas to all.

51. Titus Andronicus – Local Business: I was a huge fan of The Monitor, however this didn’t resonate with me for the most part. I missed the themed punk rock.

50. The Sheepdogs – The Sheepdogs: This is good-timing Southern Rock straight out of the 70’s. Use accordingly.

59. Grizzly Bear – Shields: Lacks the instant appeal of a Two-weeks type single, but as a whole is enjoyable and just on the edge of experimentally acceptable for me.

48. Alberta Cross – Songs of Patience: A good rock album from a band that has a great, haunting rock voice. Not as good as their debut though.

47. The New Multitudes – New Multitudes: It’s my list so I can include a tribute album, this one of Woody Guthrie. It includes two artists I follow – Yim Yames & Will Johnson.

46. Purity Ring – Shrines: Normally not quite my style, I pressed on after it came highly recommended. I have to say, I can see where it would be fun live and I like her voice.

45. Gary Clark Jr – Blak & Blu: Without question the Blues release of the year. While I like some Blues every now and then, it helped he was at every festival to get on my radar.

44. White Rabbits – Milk Famous: I’ve always thought they were an under the radar band. This continues that trend but doesn’t have a track like Percussion Gun on it.

43. Todd Snider – Agnostic Hymns & Stoner Fables: I’m a sucker for some good tales from an alt-country singer/songwriter that is witty.

42. The Felice Brothers – God Bless You Amigos: The lowest profile release of the year. I found it on their website under a pay-what-you-want format. They released it to raise funds for a new touring Winnebago. Their brand of creepy, old-timey folk of mostly covers.

41. AC Newman – Shut down the Streets: Not quite good as his full-time band New Pornographers, but worth a listen. Did like his previous Get Guilty better as well.

40. Bruce Springsteen – Wrecking Ball: I’ve never been a big Bruce fan but respect him and liked this a lot more than I initially thought I would.

39. Grace Potter and the Nocturnals – The Lion The Beast The Beat: I’m pretty sure a few years ago she decided to dress as hot as possible, cut down on the jam songs and write borderline pop tunes.

38. Old Crow Medicine Show – Carry Me Back: I wanted to like this more than I actually did. No, this isn’t the album that has Wagon Wheel on it.

37. Dirty Projectors – Swing Lo Magellan: A couple of years ago people would tell me to listen to their album Bitter Orca. It was critically reviewed but I didn’t like it. This is more accessible/better.

36. Godspeed You! Black Emperor – Allelujah! Don’t Bend! Ascend!: This will have to do in place of a new Explosions in the Sky album. With only four songs, two are ambient filler. The other two are pretty badass though.

35. The Romany Rye – Quicksilver Sunbeam: I keep thinking these guys will get bigger and it just hasn’t happened yet. There’s still time to open up your hearts to their sweet twang America.

34. Tame Impala – Lonerism: This will have to do in place of a new Flaming Lips record. Once again, at the edge of my experimentalism at my old age.

33. Fun – Some Nights: When I listen to multiple songs at a time, it reminds me too much of Queen or else it would be higher.

32. Alt-J – An Awesome Wave: Some really good songs mixed in with some aiight ones. A relatively new discovery so it’s placement on the list was pretty fluid.

31. Ty Segall – Twins: Ol’ Ty put out like 4 albums this year under different names but this one was my fav. It’s garage rock In-Utero style. When I take the time to rock, I pull this out.

30. The XX – CoExist: Not as catchy as their debut. Also, the girl singer doesn’t have much in common with Grace Potter.

29. Beach House – Bloom: When I’m in the mood for abstract synth sorta-pop, I turn to this. Like it better than their first one.

28. The Henry Clay People – Twenty-five for the Rest of Our Lives: Fun times when you want something cruising the coast with the top down. I would imagine at least.

27. Band of Horses – Mirage Rock: Not terrible, just not near their other albums. If you are going to be a straight southern rockish band, at least write better lyrics. I love you though and Everything All of the Time is one of the best albums ever.

26. Calexico – Algiers: I found this not too long ago. I like it even though it’s kinda quiet, dad rock.

25. The Tallest Man on Earth – There’s No Leaving Now: I like this better than his previous The Wild Hunt, which everyone loved. There is no single like King of Spain though.

24. Edward Sharpe & the Magnetic Zeros – Here: They got passed on the catchy/folk scale but they went for straight-hippie music and succeeded.

23. Andrew Bird – Hands of Glory: I’ve never been the biggest Andrew Bird fan other than a few songs but this is my favorite album of his.

22. Justin Townes Earle – Nothings Gonna Change how you feel about Me Now: Midnight at the Movies > this album > Harlem River Blues. This guy knows how to write a folk tune.

21. Sharon Von Etten – Tramp: Underrated as usual.

20. Glen Hansard – Rhythm & Repose: Nice front-porch sittin’ folk on a calm day while thinking about life plans.

19. M. Ward – A Wasteland Companion: I’ve listened to this more than any other M. Ward release. Nothing stands out but the songs go good together.

18. Sigur Ros – Valtari: This is pretty music if you think pretty music is mostly instrumental, abstract-sounding. I assume this how all Icelandic music sounds.

17. Dr. John – Locked Down: people spend their whole lives trying to be as cool as Dr. John.

16. Mumford & Sons – Babel: I think what hurts this album is I had heard almost half of it at their concerts over the past few years. Without a new formula, it doesn’t feel as “new” as the debut did when I first heard it.

15. The Shins – Port of Morrow: Think this gets over-looked by people/lists. It’s the definition of indie-rock by a guy who knows the blueprint for success.

14. Punch Brothers – Who’s Feeling Young Now?: Smart bluegrass. Also they cover the song Kid A. I’m surprised I didn’t put it #1.

13. Trampled by Turtles – Stars & Satellites: Close race between them & the Punch Brothers for my favorite bluegrass of the year. They make it accessible but not in a too catchy kind of way.

12. First Aid Kit – The Lion’s Roar: If you like country-ish females singing in harmonies, this is your type of music.

11. The Avett Brothers – The Carpenter: Probably peaked with Emotionalism/Gleams, but this is still really good and kinda a nod to Four Thieves gone recording compared to I & L & U. If you haven’t heard, they write heart-tugging lyrics.

10. Japandriods – Celebration Rock: Better than the debut to me. It’s a fun rock’n’roll garage-sounding record.

9. Delta Spirit – Delta Spirt: Thought most of the album was outstanding and the new sound took a little while to grow on me. It’s my least favorite of their three though as they move to arena rock. This album has made way too few lists.

8. Langhorne Slim & the Law – The Way We Move: Best album of his I’ve heard. This finds its way into my rotation regularly. Alt-country at its finest.

7. Alabama Shakes – Boys and Girls: Like Charles Bradley last year, this album captures the soul of the year. Southern rock that is cool enough to be at every festival of 2012 practically.

6. The Lumineers – The Lumineers: A quick, fun album of three minute songs. I see that it’s in the background of commercials a lot these days.

5. Jack White – Blunderbuss: The amount of good/having him back outweighed a couple of tracks I now skip over consistently.

4. Of Monsters and Men – My Head is an Animal: Winner of this year’s best folk sing-a-long using chants w/soft-to-loud choruses. Congratulations.

3. The Walkmen – Heaven: I’m a huge Walkmen fan so I’m extremely biased but this is great. The fact that I measure it against You & Me keeps it out of the top spot.

2. Father John Misty – Fear Fun: Gets better with every listen. True folk/Americana that I hope to hear in person in 2013.

1. Dr. Dog – Be the Void: Seeing this material live several times definitely helped to earn the top billing. I’m also including the EP “The Wild Race” which has the song BE THE VOID which is so good it should have made the original album. After a slick album, the production here is back to their roots and the songs couldn’t be catchier without being predictable.

So what if I’m in a bad mood. It’s only been a few days since my team choked on a Monday night in Foxborough, Mass., when it looked like The Mojo Xpress had a berth in the conference championship game locked up. Instead of starting Akers, I decided to go with Graham, who had been more consistent. Oh, and I love Monday night magic. Instead, I got a Monday night nightmare. And instead of winning with Akers by two points, I lost by five with Graham.

I can’t even tell you what I’d like to do to Tom Brady. I’d probably be incarcerated if I said what I’d like to do with the blankity-blank McAulay, who officiated the game, and must have had either a bet on the game or had Brady on his fantasy team.

Nah, I’m not bitter.

So why do I hate Santa?

Because that fat S.O.B. hasn’t given me what I’ve asked for six years now. I mean it really isn’t much to ask for a championship; they might even have some on the Island of Misfit Toys. Yeah, I’m blaming him for LeSean McCoy’s and Cecil Shorts’ concussions and Percy Harvin’s ankle injury. I’m even blaming him for allowing me to make the decision to keep Michael Vick and trade for Philip Rivers. Yeah, he even made me pick up Alex Green, Daniel Thomas and Dustin Keller and made me cut Jermaine Gresham and keep Jermichael Finley.

It’s going to be a long offseason. But y’all can still make me look good.

Just don’t ask for anything from that idiot in the red suit. Remember, if you lose, it’s his fault.

P.S. If you have anyone in the Chargers-Panthers game, prepare for plenty of holding calls. Especially if McAulay has Cam Newton on his fantasy team.

LOVE

QUARTERBACK
Josh Freeman, Bucs at Saints (30th vs. pass)
Last time these two teams faced off a couple of months ago, the waiver wires lit up after Freeman destroyed the Saints secondary. While he’s not available in many leagues any longer, if he’s sitting on your bench and you want to swing for the fences, this is the time to use him.
Honorable mention: Philip Rivers, Chargers vs. Panthers (Now he decides to become a real fantasy option)

RUNNING BACKS
David Wilson, Giants at Falcons (23rd vs. run); Darren McFadden, Raiders vs. Chiefs (27th vs. run)
As I type this, there’s speculation Ahmad Bradshaw might not even make the trip to Atlanta, and I still have nightmares of Wilson making the Saints special teams and defense look like Swiss cheese. Wilson thinks he’ll be the best running back in football, and he’ll have something to prove if he gets his first NFL start. … It seems like it was 1983 the last time McFadden had a good game, but this is his best chance in what has been one long season for him to have a great performance.
Honorable mention: Alex Green, Packers at Bears (Finally had a decent game last week); Daniel Thomas, Dolphins vs. Jaguars (No team has given up more rushing touchdowns than Jacksonville)

WIDE RECEIVERS
Brian Hartline, Dolphins vs. Jaguars (24th vs. pass); Golden Tate, Seahawks at Bills (14th vs. pass)
About once per year I advocate starting a Dolphins receiver. Well, this is it. After some tough matchups, Miami will do what it does best – beat up on bad teams. And Hartline deserves to be on a better team with a quarterback who actually can get him the ball. … Although Sidney Rice probably will play, look for Tate to be the go-to guy for Russell Wilson this week. The Bills actually have played decently on defense the past few weeks, but have been stronger against the run, so while Marshawn Lynch will get his carries, the Seabags likely will have to pass a bit more.
Honorable mention: Joe Morgan, Saints vs. Bucs (Becoming the new Devery Henderson); Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers at Cowboys (Increasingly becoming more important to offense)

TIGHT END
Dallas Clark, Bucs at Saints (30th vs. pass)
You didn’t think I was going to let it go with just Freeman against this joke of a defense? Clark scored in the first meeting between these two teams, and there’s a good chance he’ll do it again. Of course, there’s a chance everyone will score. Probably even some Bucs linebacker.
Honorable mention: Scott Chandler, Bills vs. Seahawks (Physical, red-zone threat against this tough defense)

KICKER: Olindo Mare, Bears vs. Packers (Gould’s out, Mare takes over and becomes big weapon for stalling offense)

HATE

QUARTERBACK
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers at Patriots (29th vs. pass)
So we all know the struggles New England has had on defense, but when push comes to shove and they have a goal within their sight lines, forget it. And this team is determined to win out and find a way into the top seed and grab home-field advantage. Did you see what happened to a real NFL quarterback, Matt Schaub, last week?
Not-so-honorable mention: Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. Giants (Playoffs are inching closer; queue his inner bum)

RUNNING BACKS
Stevan Ridley, Patriots vs. 49ers (2nd vs. run); Ryan Mathews, Chargers vs. Panthers (21st vs. run)
Rule is not to start any non-elite running back against San Francisco, and Ridley is far from elite. That’s especially true considering how many options New England has, including the return of Brandon Bolden. … If you’re still counting on Mathews, you either are very stubborn or have no other options. If it’s because you’re stubborn, do yourself a big favor and go with someone else.
Not-so-honorable mention: Ray Rice, Ravens vs. Broncos (Can’t sit him just yet, but his hip is ailing and Denver has allowed just five rushing touchdowns all season)

WIDE RECEIVERS
Dez Bryant, Cowboys vs. Steelers (1st vs. pass); Wes Welker, Patriots vs. 49ers (2nd vs. pass)
So he says he’s playing. And he might. No way, however, is it worth the risk of starting the Cowboys top receiver. The fractured finger definitely is one of those injuries where he tries to give it a go, and then realizes he can’t – or the coaches realize it. Either way, in the playoffs, you just can’t take that chance. … Speaking of injuries, Welker is struggling with his ankle and had a tough go last week catching just three passes. Against this staunch defense, if you have a comparable option (or even slightly less one), go in that direction.
Not-so-honorable mention: Roddy White, Falcons vs. Giants (We’re just going to stick with the injury theme); Kenny Britt, Titans vs. Jets (Only slightly injured, but tough matchup)

TIGHT END
Greg Olsen, Panthers at Chargers (22nd vs. pass)
Although San Diego hasn’t been great against the pass overall, they have been tough against tight ends. Olsen has scored two weeks in a row, but has just six catches in those games.
Not-so-honorable mention: Dennis Pitta, Ravens vs. Broncos (Has been stellar, but Denver not a favorable matchup)

KICKER: Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders vs. Chiefs (Rain in the forecast)

Ke$ha because … Ke$ha.

Week fifteen starts a pivotal time in NFL betting. The last few weeks of the season, this is money time for the books. It never fails that the popular bets fall much more frequently.

It all culminates in week 17 where lines are backwards because of teams resting players or no motivation. It is much like your own fantasy leagues. With this in mind, I’ve capped my games accordingly.

Had only my second losing week of the entire NFL season last week. I’ve been nothing if not steady. The odd thing is that I won my Thursday and Monday night games, which has been a rarity. I do feel good about these games oddly enough.

Not NFL but the most popular betting this time of year is college bowl season. I had an idea of a strategy to use for this season. I use progressive betting in MLB and it’s very successful. Take the underdog in every game for a unit. If you win, start over. If you lose then double up. If you have a big bankroll, you should be fine. Underdogs always cover frequently, especially until Jan. 1^st historically. After that you should switch to favorites. Just a thought since if you bet NFL I know you bet college. It’s easier to have a set strategy than trying to figure out each bowl game.

On to the picks!

Season record (54-47-3)

Last week (3-6)

NFL

PHILADELPHIA +4.5 vs. Bengals – Finally got a Thursday night game right last week. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it involved the Broncos which I never am wrong when I pick a side in their game. Nick Foles isn’t nearly as bad as I thought he would be, they have some form of a running game and they are at home on a short week. Combine that with getting the magic number of 4-6 points and I can’t wait to barely pay attention to this game. Seriously, the Thursday night games were supposed to be a good thing right? Who picks these matchups?

OAKLAND -3 vs. Chiefs – Usually I try not to have a “favorite game” or one I put a lot more on than any of the others. It’s all about managing money the best you can. The number one question I get asked is which game do you like the best. I can say this week though, it’s the Raiders. They have been at home three weeks and lost the first two. I’m calling it – it’s going to be an Oakland cover pretty easily. Jump on the train with me.

ARIZONA +7 vs. Lions – The Cardinals collapse is reaching legendary proportion. I imagine that winter is Arizona there are much better things to do than keep up with this pile of ineptitude. Mid-way through the year there was a question about the most underachieving fantasy player. It’s no longer a question – it’s Larry Fitzgerald. Game, set, match.

SAN FRANCISCO +5 vs. Patriots – Pure public perception here. The shine is off the Niners lately while the people are lining up to give hugs to the Super Bowl winning Patriots after the demolishing of the Texans Monday night. If NE pulls off an impressive win here, I’ll change my idea but now I’m playing line value.

HOUSTON -9 vs. Colts – This is part two of the above play about going against the Patriots above. I think the Colts are a good team and a great story, but the media is making them out to be on the Texans level. They aren’t. This line has gone up some but it is begging for Colts money. Give me a pissed off Houston team that has something to prove and play for at home.

GREEN BAY -3 vs. Bears – One of the things I pay attention to is how teams do in December and in this case we have the Packers who do very well against the spread vs. the Bears who simply do not. With the Bears banged up, it’s not the time to face a Green Bay squad who is trying to establish an identity heading into the playoffs.

NEW YORK GIANTS +1 vs. Falcons – I fade the Falcons a lot and here I’m getting easily the better team. I think Atlanta will continue to unravel before righting the ship the week before the playoffs start. Either way, we all know that they pretty much blow.

WASHINGTON -1 vs. Browns – I’m banking on RGIII playing in this game and from that perspective, I’ll gladly lay the one with the disparity at quarterback. If he somehow doesn’t play, then this will be a terrible, terrible game I hope I don’t spend one second watching.

TAMPA BAY +3.5 vs. Saints – Not rocket science. Take the team that has something to play for and can run the ball. The Saints have self-destructed the past few weeks and you have to wonder how much motivation is left on a season that has been taken from them by outside forces and turnovers. In this series, the road team usually covers as well. Let’s go Doug Martin.

Good luck!

Both of my Rob Gronkowski teams were one-and-done in the fantasy football playoffs.

No surprise.

In Week 14 I suggested streaming the following tight ends if you were a Gronk owner: Tony Scheffler (scored a TD), Greg Olsen (scored a TD), Jared Cook (scored a TD) and JerMichael Finley (crapped the bed). Unfortunately, I started Finley in one of my Gronk leagues and lost by less than a point.

I’d never owned Finley before in my life. I now hate him like those of you who have.

It looked like Cook was on his way to a big day for his owners. Scored an early touchdown, finished the day with double-digit fantasy points in most PPR leagues. But he is done for the year now with a rotator cuff injury, so there’s one less option out there for Gronk owners now.

Scheffler still is a decent play and relatively unowned. Brandon Pettigrew is banged up and may not play this week, so there could be even more targets coming his way. Again, I’m on board with #teamscheff.

For those in deeper leagues, Tony Moeaki has a nice matchup against Oakland. Dwayne Bowe has been shut down for the year in KC, so Moeaki could emerge as the team’s go-to receiver in the red zone. Dallas Clark also is a solid option against New Orleans.

If you have any other waiver wire questions/comments, hit me up on the Twitter @TheHazean. Otherwise, good luck in the playoffs!

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