While ESPN starts amassing the troops for the annual summer Brett Favre watch, fantasy owners — who already know Favre is coming back — are wondering what to expect this season from Favre and the Vikings.

Last year was glorious. Arguably the best season of Favre’s career, he helped Sidney Rice blossom into a stud No. 1 wide receiver by the end of 2009. Rookie Percy Harvin was a must-own in all leagues. Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe was pretty much a start-every-week player. Even Bernard Berrian, despite battling injuries, found his way onto most fantasy rosters.

But can fantasy owners expect Favre to reproduce those numbers again this year? If you were to ask the Magic 8 ball this specific question right now, the answer would most certainly be “Outlook Not So Good.”

Right now, Favre’s average draft position has him as the ninth quarterback off the board in fantasy mock drafts. In a standard redraft league, you can expect him to leave the board sometime during the sixth round. Seems a little low for a guy coming off a 33-touchdown, seven-interception season.

But fantasy owners are either (A) wary of taking Favre because he might not come back (yeah, right) or (B) anticipating a let-down in Minnesota this year. I am going with the latter.

Hard to believe he will be able to replicate those numbers this year. I think the touchdowns come down to the mid-20s and the interceptions go up to the teens and possibly upper-teens. That means, as far as touchdowns go, someone in the Minnesota passing game is going to take a hit.

So who will it be? Rice, Harvin, Shiancoe or Berrian? Choosing right now, I would say Harvin and Berrian are most at risk of scoring fewer touchdowns. Rice should be OK as Shaincoe should be as well, since both a good red-zone targets whom Favre trusts.

And of course, Adrian Peterson — barring injury and too many fumbles — will be just fine.

Here are today’s great reads:

• Maurice Jones-Drew, not Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson, should be the first running back off the board this summer during fantasy drafts according to these rankings. Agree or disagree? It would be hard for me to pass on either of those guys for MJD, though he certainly would be the third player off my board right now. [FanHouse]
• Running backs on bad teams generally do not perform well in fantasy leagues. But a few guys last year, like Chris Johnson, Frank Gore and Maurice Jones-Drew, bucked the trend and had monster seasons. [Pancake Blocks]
• C.J. Spiller — not Ryan Mathews — might be on the only rookie running back worth drafting in fantasy leagues this summer. Spiller has a lot more to overcome in Buffalo however: Competition in the backfield and a bad offense in general. Mathews, meanwhile, has a great set up. Too good to be true, perhaps? [Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy]
• For those of you scoring at home, the Denver Broncos check in at No. 25 on the Fantasy Juggernaut Index. If you have not read any of these yet, I suggest you do so immediately. They are fantastic. [Roto Arcade]

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