Seven Fantasy Mirages or Seven Fantasy Studs-to-Be?

fantasy football, numbers, rankings, NFL, sports Few things are as popular as waiver wire transactions during the course of a fantasy football season.

Fantasy owners have little patience with underwhelming players. Late-round fliers who flopped early this season like Chris Henry and James Davis have long been cast aside for newer, higher-performing models.

Many fantasy owners keep a rotating spot or two on the bench for such talent, hoping to land the next chunk of fantasy football gold.

But discerning between real gold, like the Ryan Grants and Lance Moores of yore, and fool’s gold is tricky, unpredictable business. The waiver wire favors no one man and all are at her mercy.

Now that fantasy owners have crossed the midseason point in most leagues, waiver wire additions are becoming more and more important. Leon Washington owners are scrambling this week, for example, to add Shonn Green off the waiver wire after Washington’s gnarly injury in week 7.

As injuries like these continue to mount and/or disappointing draft picks continue to falter, the right finds on the wire could turn into the gold fantasy owners need to make a strong playoff push.

So which of these players are for real and which are mirages?

Chad Henne, QB, Dolphins
Week 4: 115 passing yards, 1 touchdown; 14 rushing yards
Week 5: 241 passing yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 7: 211 passing yards, 2 interceptions

Henne’s promising one-and-a-half game start (356 yards, three touchdowns) quickly washed away in the second half of yesterday’s loss to the Saints.

Over the course of 30 minutes, Henne was picked twice — both returned for touchdowns — and failed to lead Miami on an extended drive when the Dolphins needed it most. However, most of it was not entirely his fault. Ted Ginn et al dropped a number of catchable passes.

Thus, Henne’s ceiling is exposed. He only can be as good as his surrounding talent allows. If Ginn and Co. catch those passes yesterday, perhaps Henne’s stock remains on the rise.

Upcoming Schedule: @ Jets, @ Patriots, v. Buccaneers, @ Panthers, @ Bills

Fantasy Prognosis: Can Henne become a solid starting quarterback for the Dolphins? The next two brutal upcoming road games should enlighten fantasy owners.

He will not lose the job in the next two games despite the outcome. This is his team for the rest of the 2009 season. If Henne can bounce back and have decent showings on the road, the following three games — Bucs, Panthers and Bills — are more favorable from a fantasy standpoint.

Wait and see how he handles adversity before pulling the trigger.

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots
Week 6: 133 yards, 1 touchdown
Week 7: 43 yards, 1 touchdown

Is there any running back more frustrating than Maroney these last few years? Any running game outside of Mike Shanahan’s Broncos more difficult to figure out than New England’s?

In what should have been a no-brainer start, Maroney almost laid a gigantic egg against Tampa Bay in London. Had he not scored a late touchdown, fantasy owners would have — again — been burned by he-who-should-be-better.

Clearly, Maroney is not who we thought he was when the Patriots drafted him a few years ago.

Upcoming Schedule: Bye, v. Dolphins, @ Colts, v. Jets, @ Saints

Fantasy Prognosis: Disregard the schedule. Disregard whatever is said about Maroney by Bill Belichick or anyone else associated with the Patriots.

Keep your distance from the Patriots running game.

There were rumors near the NFL trade deadline that the Patriots were trying to land Rams’ running back Steven Jackson. Thank goodness that did not happen is all I have to say as a Jackson owner. New England is a running back black hole.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
Week 5: 250 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 7: 171 yards, 2 touchdowns

Absolutely, 100 percent for real.

Those of you who landed Austin off the waiver wire a few weeks ago — or better yet, those of you who drafted him and held onto him through the first five weeks of the season — struck fantasy gold.

Only a handful of players achieve this type of fantasy greatness each season. Austin appears well on his way to leading once-distraught owners to the fantasy playoffs thanks to a couple of gigantic, WR1, must-start numbers the last two games.

Upcoming Schedule: v. Seahawks, @ Eagles, @ Packers, v. Redskins, v. Raiders

Fantasy Prognosis: Boy that schedule looks tasty.

The Dallas passing game is competent enough to survive even the toughest of match-ups. None of these teams are that scary in the secondary. Austin should continue to hang nice stat lines through the rest of the season as the team’s No. 1 home-run threat.

Only sell Austin high for the highest of highs.

Austin Collie, WR, Colts
Week 4: 65 yards, 1 touchdown
Week 5: 97 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 7: 36 yards, 1 touchdown

Life is good in Indianapolis for just about everyone these days.

Earlier this season it was the emergence of Pierre Garcon that caught fantasy owners’ eyes. Now those same eyes have turned to Collie, who continues to steal catches, yards and touchdowns from the sought-after Garcon.

The question remains: Will Collie be able to keep this up when Anthony Gonzalez returns to the lineup?

Upcoming Schedule: v. 49ers, v. Texans, v. Patriots, @ Ravens, @ Texans

Fantasy Prognosis: The schedule certainly is no formidable. Peyton Manning should handle these opponents with ease.

However, the dynamics of the Colts’ offense is due to change upon Gonzalez’s return. He likely will return to the starting lineup. What does that mean for Collie and Garcon? Will they be able to produce consistently enough to appease the fantasy masses?

For now, Collie deserves to remain on fantasy rosters. He is a start-able entity, especially in league’s with a flex position, until Gonzalez returns. Then he should hit the bench to see how the dynamic shakes out. Re-evaluate after that.

Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings
Week 6: 176 yards
Week 7: 136 yards

Rice also scored touchdowns in consecutive games (weeks 3 and 4) earlier this season with a 61-yard effort sandwiched in between those two nice fantasy lines and these most-recent two.

This is the Rice fantasy owners tabbed as a sleeper before the start of the 2008 season. Had it not been for injuries, perhaps he would have emerged at some point last year. Or maybe this emergence is due in part to the acquisition of Brett Favre, who seems to favor Rice most among the Vikings’ wide receivers.

Say what you will about Favre, but he certainly has made the Vikings’ passing attack fantasy relevant again.

Upcoming Schedule: @ Packers, Bye, v. Lions, v. Seahawks, v. Bears

Fantasy Prognosis: All kinds of delicious matchups on the schedule for one of the hottest passing attacks in the league.

What Rice and Favre proved in week 7 against the Steelers is that conditions — field, weather, crowd, etc. — should not affect this duo. There may not be a more difficult surface on which to play than in Pittsburgh and the fact that Rice was able to amass such a large yardage total on the unforgiving tundra bodes well for his away slate of games.

Miles Austin may be stealing all the headlines, but Rice should be there at the end of the season with equally as impressive numbers. Another great find off the waiver wire for fantasy owners, especially those who may have missed out on Austin.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
Week 4: 54 yards, 1 touchdown
Week 5: 49 yards, 1 touchdown
Week 6: 114 yards, 1 touchdown
Week 7: 80 yards, 1 touchdown

Many would argue that Nicks’ production has been fluky to date and it would be hard to convince them otherwise. One catch for a touchdown in week 4, nothing in week 6 until after halftime with the game out of hand and David Carr at quarterback and a touchdown catch off a deflected pass against the Cardinals in week 7 are not the most conventional ways to go about fantasy production.

But it is production nonetheless. And those owners who have used Nicks in any of the last four weeks have likely been impressed by his ability to find the endzone, no matter the course.

Upcoming Schedule: @ Eagles, v. Chargers, Bye, v. Falcons, @ Broncos

Fantasy Prognosis: There is something a little off about the Giants’ passing game right now. Nicks, however, is the one player seemingly in the right places at the right times for this offense.

But how much longer can he keep scoring these “fluky” touchdowns? And how many touchdowns is this non-starting, rookie wide receiver going to score this year? At some point this has to stop, right?

Chances are, yes. But the value is nice right now for Nicks. Try and sell him to a wide receiver desperate owner.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles
Week 5: 142 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 6: 6 yards

A huge week followed by a dud usually says it all to a fantasy owner: One-week wonder.

But maybe not in Maclin’s case. He is, after all, a rookie. Some inconsistency is expected. And he has wrangled away a starting spot in the Eagles’ offense from veteran Kevin Curtis.

Lining up opposite weapons DeSean Jackson, Brian Westbrook and Brent Celek leaves plenty of single-coverage for the young deep threat. Maclin could have some use for fantasy owners yet.

Upcoming Schedule: v. Giants, v. Cowboys, @ Chargers, @ Bears, v. Redskins

Fantasy Prognosis: Nothing terribly intimidating about that upcoming schedule. All of those could end up as shoot-outs, which means more opportunity for a starting wide receiver on the Eagles named Jeremy Maclin.

But — there is always a but — he has only one good game to his credit this season. It was against the awful Buccaneers. Until he can do it against a better secondary, Maclin is better off on fantasy owners’ benches.

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