fantasy football, numbers, rankings, NFL, sportsBrace yourselves, Chris Johnson owners/supporters.

After crunching the average draft position numbers on Fantasy Football Calculator and Mock Draft Central, the second-year Titans’ running back is one of the most overvalued runners in fantasy drafts this summer.

I took some serious heat on Bleacher Report last week for calling Philip Rivers the most overvalued quarterback. Ironically, I got some support for that call here on the blog.

With that in mind, I wanted to make something perfectly clear: I do not think these guys, most of them at least, will be busts. I just think these players are being drafted too high for the numbers I expect of them in 2009.

Rivers, for example, likely will not throw 34 touchdowns again this year. The Chargers defense will be better in a terrible division and LaDainian Tomlinson is healthy again. Rivers simply will not be relied upon as often to carry the team on his shoulders. So why draft him in the 4th round when you can get a similar quarterback two, three or even four rounds later?

Back to Johnson, though. Not that fantasy owners should take too much from preseason games, but Sunday’s Hall of Fame game was significant for Johnson in one regard: He came out of the game when the Titans moved the ball inside the 10-yard line.

Several fantasy experts expected Johnson to slowly take those carries away from LenDale White as early as week one of this season. That does not appear to be the case. White came in and scored a touchdown on his second touch, all but cementing his role as Johnson’s touchdown vulture.

That is semi-bad news for Johnson, whose touchdowns will have to come from at least 10+ yards out. He certainly is capable of those by the handful. But White’s presence clearly lowers Johnson’s ceiling, thus leading to his overvalued-ness in fantasy drafts.

Chris Johnson, Titans
2008 stats: 1,228 rushing yards, 260 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 9.1 (Round 1.09)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 9.96

In addition to Rivers, Johnson and the rest of the running backs below, remember to check out the eight most overvalued wide receivers in fantasy drafts as well.

The average draft positions (ADP) for each of the players listed below were taken from two of the leading mock draft sites, Fantasy Football Calculator and Mock Draft Central ADP current as of August 10, 2009.

Reggie Bush, Saints
2008 stats: 404 rushing yards, 440 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 44.5 (Round 4.08)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 44.47

Bush is a phenomenal athlete and difference-maker on offense for the Saints. At the risk of sounding too much like a homer — which I am — Bush is one of the most exciting players to watch in the NFL.

All that said, he is a risky RB2 with gigantic upside. The problem now for those in redraft leagues, injury issues aside, is that Pierre Thomas is establishing himself as the Saints’ between-the-tackles running back. That should equate to goal line opportunities, some of which Bush received in the past. In order to keep Bush healthy this year, expect less running up the gut.

Those in PPR leagues should expect more of the same from Bush.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs
2008 stats: 874 rushing yards, 74 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 51.4 (Round 5.03)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 51.11

Even with the acquisition of Matt Cassel, the expected-to-be quarterback of the future, the Chiefs offense seems still a few years away from significant fantasy relevance. And by that time, Johnson will be long gone and the Chiefs running back will be … Jamaal Charles? Jahvid Best? Charles Scott?

Regardless, the short-term outlook remains grim. Gone is Tony Gonzalez, one of the very few bright spots on the roster last year. Dwayne Bowe will have to handle the receiving duties almost entirely. Opposing defenses likely will take advantage of this deficiency by trying to make Cassel win games.

That means a lot of rough sledding for Johnson.

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers
2008 stats: 563 rushing yards, 174 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 114.1 (Round 10.06)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 109.18

Now that Graham has been vanquished to the fullback position, his fantasy value is severely limited. The Bucs paid Derrick Ward to be the No. 1 running back in the offense and are going to give him more than enough chances to keep the job.

If I draft Ward, no way am I wasting a pick on Graham. There are handcuffs to own in the NFL — like Michael Turner-Jerrious Norwood, LaDainian Tomlinson-Darren Sproles — and this is not one of them. In fact, I would avoid all handcuff situations unless you are handcuffing a stud running back, like the aforementioned Turner and Tomlinson.

LeRon McClain, Ravens
2008 stats: 902 rushing yards, 123 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 119.5 (Round 10.12)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 105.73

McClain, like Graham, is slated to serve as his team’s primary full back this season. That is not to say he will not get some touches in the offense; He was good enough at time last year to warrant a fair share again this season, especially in goal line work.

But with the Ray Rice hype machine operating at full capacity, it is hard to ignore the fact that Rice is indeed built more like a runner than McClain. And with McClain potentially paving the road for Rice, it could turn out to be a pretty lucrative tandem for the Ravens. McClain may be good for a spot start here or there depending on the health of the Baltimore backfield, but other than that this timeshare is convoluted enough as it is with these two and Willis McGahee.

Shonn Greene, Jets
2008 stats: N/A
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 123.2 (Round 11.03)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 171.21

I was pretty bullish on Greene after the NFL Draft. Given that both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington were all in for lengthy contract disputes, Greene seemed like a guy who could slip in and steal immediate playing time.

But as time wore on and both Jones and Washington reported for training camp, the post-draft honeymoon for Green ended. It seems increasingly unlikely that he will be able to wrestle enough playing time away from both Jones and Washington to merit being drafted in standard redraft leagues. Obviously if Jones goes down, Greene would become the belwether in the backfield. Unless that happens though, I do not think there are enough footballs to go around considering both Jones and Washington are playing for new contracts.

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