fantasy football, numbers, rankings, NFL, sportsEveryone wants to be known as a fantasy football genius. Especially at the end of a draft.

One of the defining qualities of true fantasy geniuses is the ability to find the right value in fantasy drafts and subsequent waiver wire expeditions. This certainly is both an art and a skill.

Too many fantasy football owners draft without knowledge of value. Instead, a quick glance over the roster to see what positions are missing or checking on the bye week conflicts is all the information the vast majority of owners need when making a selection.

Big no-no.

So much goes into taking the right players at the right spots. The skill part of the equation is doing the homework ahead of time. Study average draft positions on various mock draft websites. Vigilantly scour fantasy football rankings to see where players are being ranked, and keep checking as rankings are very fluid.

The art part of the equation comes on draft day. Most owners only have a minute or two to make the selection. Having all the numbers crunched and the research done ahead of time is crucial, but now is the time to construct the masterpiece. See the values in each pick, take the undervalued players at the right time and watch as other owners reach badly for overvalued players.

Starting today, The Hazean will run down some of the most overvalued players currently being taken in mock drafts. A few weeks ago, we ran through the most undervalued quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and non-starting wide receivers.

Remember that the draft is just the first part of the process of winning a fantasy football championship. A good draft can set an owner up nicely for the season. A bad one? Sucks, but owners can recover. Keep searching for the values, especially after the draft.

The average draft positions (ADP) for each of the players listed below were taken from two of the leading mock draft sites, Fantasy Football Calculator and Mock Draft Central. ADP current as of July 29, 2009.

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
2008 stats: 86 receptions, 1,022 yards, 7 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 29.9 (Round 3.06)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 28.78

He put up great numbers considering the anemic nature of the Chiefs offense last year, and did it with a smodge-podge of quarterbacks. When Tyler Thigpen is chucking the rock 30 times per game and you still are pulling down fat fantasy stat lines, your hype is sure to go through the roof.

And that is what Bowe’s stock has done. Now with a more competent — at least from the early returns — quarterback behind center, Bowe is expected to elevate last year’s numbers. But that will be hard to do with no Tony Gonzalez to keep pass defenses honest and hardly a semblance of a running game. Bowe should have a good year for sure, but top-12 territory is a stretch.

Wes Welker, Patriots
2008 stats: 111 receptions, 1,165 yards, 3 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 31.8 (Round 3.08)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 31.05

Fantasy owners love them some Wes Welker. Which is fine and all, especially for points-per-receptions leagues.

But standard non-PPR leagues? Ehh, not so much.

To be fair, Welker does catch a lot of passes in a high-powered offense. Tom Brady is back, too, which certainly helps his value. But the Brady factor may be exaggerating Welker’s fantasy value just a tad.

Chad Johnson, Bengals
2008 stats: 53 receptions, 540 yards, 4 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 40.9 (Round 4.05)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 53.25

Many in the fantasy community are expecting a huge bounce-back season from Chad in 2009. But why?

First because Carson Palmer is back and healthy. Second, T.J. Houshmandzadeh is no longer there to steal targets and catches from Johnson. Neither of those reasons, however, are a guarantee that Johnson will be productive enough to warrant his current ADP.

Housh is gone, but the Bengals brought in Laveranues Coles to fill his shoes. Always undervalued, Coles will steal his share of targets even in the redzone. Chris Henry is generating a lot of buzz this offseason and will steal the deep looks. And the Bengals drafted a pass-catching tight end in Chase Coffman to help Palmer in the passing game. Even without Housh, Johnson is going to battle for targets with three capable pass catchers this season.

Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
2008 stats: 83 receptions, 1,248 yards, 7 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 60.4 (Round 5.12)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 47.97

No more Jon Gruden. Jeff Garcia is gone too. All that is left for Antonio Bryant is a mediocre logjam at quarterback and question marks all over the Tampa Bay roster.

Add in the fact that Bryant has never been a highly productive or consistent fantasy threat and the risk is overwhelming taking Bryant as anything more than a WR3. Without another receiver to take the heat off Bryant, defenses will spend a little more energy keeping him in check. Even the addition of Kellen Winslow cannot help Bryant’s value, as he figures to steal a lot of the attention of whomever becomes the Bucs starting quarterback.

Michael Crabtree, 49ers
2008 stats: N/A (Rookie)
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 81.5 (Round 7.09)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 93.33

Meet Michael Crabtree, ridiculously overrated as a fantasy wide receiver for this season.

Consider Calvin Johnson’s rookie season as a benchmark, albeit a very lofty one: 48 catches, 756 yards, 5 total touchdowns. Think Crabtree is coming even remotely close to those numbers in the Mike Singletary coached 49ers’ offense? Better think again.

The successes of DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal last season are helping buoy Crabtree’s fantasy value. But consider that neither of these guys were drafted in a majority of leagues last year because they were not considered to be ready for the NFL in terms of fantasy football. But both guys exploded onto the scene and became waiver wire gold because of situation — pass-happy offenses — more than talent.

Crabtree has uber-talent, but the situation in San Fran does not seem right for him to have a worthwhile fantasy season this year.

Domenik Hixon, Giants
2008 stats: 43 receptions, 596 yards, 2 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 114.0 (Round 10.06)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 106.36

A few decent games at the end of 2008 and suddenly Domenik Hixon is weaving his way through the collective subconscious of fantasy owners. But even with Plaxico Burress out of the way, Hixon is not even the No. 1 or 2 receiving option in the Giants’ offense.

Heck, he  may not even be No. 3 or 4 or 5 when it is all said and done. Steve Smith will assume the role of possession receiver in the Giants offense, garnering some of Manning’s most important targets. The tight ends — Kevin Boss and Travis Beckum — will be options 2A and 2B. Ahmad Bradshaw and/or Danny Ware will assume the spot vacated by Derrick Ward as option 3 out of the backfield. After that, Hixon will need to fend off Sinorice Moss and rookies Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden for targets.

It is going to be difficult for Hixon to put up consistent fantasy football numbers in that log jam of a receiving corps. He reeks of Devery Henderson fame.

Plaxico Burress, Free agent
2008 stats: 35 receptions, 454 yards, 4 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 152.3 (Round 13.08)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 187.72

Why is he even being drafted at this point?

It is looking increasingly likely that Plax will miss all of 2009 due to legal issues and there is a good chance he will not be able to return for the 2010 season as well. Now that he appears well of the football radar, gambling fantasy owners hoping he would land somewhere like Chicago will likely stop drafting this guy. There is no reason to roster Burress in the foreseeable future.

Earl Bennett, Bears
2008 stats: 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 147.8 (Round 13.04)
Mock Draft Central ADP: 200.86

How does a player go from zero catches last season to being drafted by fantasy owners the next?

Bennett could not even sniff the field from the sidelines last season. And it is not like the Bears have a daunting dearth of talent at the wide receiver position. Yet here he is being taken as a flier late in most mock drafts.

Why, you ask? We all know the answer is Jay Cutler. The Commodore connection — both were teammates at Vanderbilt — has been restored and suddenly Bennett is on the fantasy radar. Fantasy owners would be better served using the roster spot on another talent, perhaps some depth at running back, while keeping an eye on Bennett’s progress through the preseason. He is no more than waiver wire fodder at this point.

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