My wife thinks it is way too early to start planning for fantasy football drafts next summer, especially because she knows how time-consuming the preparation process can be. If I was a smart man, I would avoid fantasy football altogether for the next few months or so just to make her happy.
So with that in mind, Marc and I took some time last week to throw out a first-round mock draft for redraft leagues next summer. And a couple of interesting trends came out of it that I thought I should mention.
First, if we learned anything from 2008 it was that running backs are, and always will be, king. Before this season began, trendy fantasy football owners were jumping ship from running backs to quarterbacks and wide receivers in the first and second rounds of fantasy drafts. But next season already appears to be a resurgence for the running back position in the first round, as you guys will see below.
Another thing we learned is that the top fantasy quarterback continues to change. From Peyton Manning to Tom Brady to now a new front-runner, the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mantra rules when it comes to QBs.
And as far as those uber-popular wide receivers go, I think fantasy owners will avoid them for the most part in the first round of drafts next summer. Getting burned by Braylon Edwards and T.J. Houshmandzadeh all season, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne for stretches of the season and a few others will not sit well with owners next August. But if any wide receivers do creep into the first round, my money would be on Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and/or Calvin Johnson.
1.01 Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: No debate between Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson this time around. ADP is the clear-cut favorite to be a consensus No. 1 pick next summer. He has shed the injury-prone label and should continue to improve as a pro running back in his third NFL season.
1.02 Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Turner put up big numbers in his first season as a starting running back. With an even more experienced Matt Ryan next year, Turner might try and take a crack at the top fantasy running back.
1.03 Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: You just know that one of these years SJax is going to crack the injury-prone label. His upside is too great to pass on him despite missing multiple games the last two years.
1.04 Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: Westbrook means everything to both the Eagles running and passing game. If he could ever stay healthy for the entire season, he would probably be mentioned as the best fantasy running back in the league.
1.05 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: A toe injury hindered Tomlinson’s fantasy output in 2008. If the Chargers go out and get him a lead blocker again, things should look up for LT2’s numbers next year. He will slide down a few spots, but I think there still is enough left in the tank for another run at Peterson.
1.06 Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Gore started the season off real hot, but cooled off later in the season. Quarterback Shaun Hill should open some running lanes for Gore by continuing to improve the 49ers’ passing game.
1.07 Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Portis was the best fantasy runningback through midseason, but injuries hampered his success down the stretch. He did play through the injuries, which is encouraging news for fantasy owners worried about getting bitten by the injury bug next year.
1.08 Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: I think Jacobs is going to be one of the best running backs in the NFL next year and is a steal at the 8th pick in this mock. He is a load to bring down and will get all of the goal line carries in this offense.
1.09 Drew Brees, QB, Saints: Finally, a non running back. Brees topped at fantasy quarterbacks in 2008 and there always is at least one guy in every league willing to jump on a QB in the first round. Brees finally gets to stake his claim as the game’s best fantasy quarterback.
1.10 Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys: The Cowboys were a mess all season. I think it was because they got away from the power running game. Felix Jones will steal carries from Barber next season, but that will only make Barber better later in the season.
1.11 Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Forte is the workhorse back in Chicago, which he proved during his rookie campaign. He played well despite battling some injuries down the stretch, so there is no question this guy is tough and can handle a 16-game season as the team’s sole ball carrier.
1.12 Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: Johnson was the third best rookie running back points wise this season, and I think he has the most upside. His electric moves and blazing speed will help keep LenDale White in a back-up role.
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No MJD? Yahoo had him at 1.02 in their early mock. Not saying that’s right either, but I feel a lot better about him than Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Portis, Steven Jackson, MBIII, and perhaps LT. I’m not certain any of those guys will put up better numbers than MJD, and I think they are all riskier.
MJD has only been reliably putting up top 10 RB stats while in a time share, and his carries will go up if Fred Taylor moves on, which appears likely at this point. You also have to note that he tends to pick up the pace later in the year, when fantasy owners need him most. Some of these other guys tend to break down or disappear as the year goes on.
You know, I think he will show up on here as the offseason progresses and the rookie shine wears off on some of the low-end first rounders. MJD likely will get the lions share of the carries next year, but if Jacksonville does nothing about that O-line — which is unlikely — his stock may not rise too much.
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