I have enjoyed this season making picks for those of you who read this. It’s always been a hobby of mine and this gives me the opportunity to combine that hobby with my love to type. And man, do I love to type. It’s pretty ironic that I love twitter so much because it’s a struggle on most every tweet to stay within the character limit. I would think that with a 540 character limit though.

Thanks everyone for visiting and soon we will be working on our NFL Mock Draft to get us ready for who might be next seasons Doug Martin or Alfred Morris. Just kidding, nobody saw him coming. I mean Evan Royster was a hot commodity starting in like in the 6^th rounds of drafting. Maybe those people I think are crazy by drafting a defense in that spot are on to something. Just kidding, that’s a terrible strategy.

Since this is it for a while, let’s get some television house-cleaning out of the way. The Walking Dead returns in February so you still have time to either start the series or just re-watch how awesome season 3 unfolded so far. Then at the end of March, Game of Thrones returns for the third season. There is absolutely no reason to not have a dress-up party for this occasion. I know I will. Remember – what is dead may never die.

Below I have picks for the side and total as well as multiple prop bets. Should keep us occupied for the whole game at least while everyone else is really pumped up about squares.

On to the picks!

Playoff record (12-7)

NFL

SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 vs. Ravens –  Dance with the one that brought ya. I have been on the Niners all season so no reason to have a change of heart now. I like Colin K. to run wild on a Ravens defense that has struggled to contain anyone all year. Despite their showing against Atlanta, the Niners have superior defensive talent here. The real wildcards will be Crabtree and Davis who should be the difference makers. Also, I just plain don’t like the Ravens and hope they lose. Bad. Like the rest of America, I just hope Anthony Dixon gets into the game to make a play.

SAN FRANCISCO/ATLANTA OVER 47 – On the turf in the Dome, no reason this shouldn’t go over the total. In a playoffs that has been dominated by the OVER, I don’t see the Ravens with the ability to hold the Niners down. I honestly see a 31-17 type game and the Ravens scoring coming late. But hey, they have surprised me all season so I’m sure they will be up 14-0 after the first three minutes. Plus, no one wants to take the UNDER at a Super Bowl party. It’s not cool.

San Francisco -10.5 +270

Total rushing yards by Colin Kaepernick – OVER 51

What will happen first for Baltimore Ravens – Punt -170

Kaepernick 1st rushing attempt in game will be – Over 5′ yards -125

Last Accepted Penalty in game will be  – Delay of game +400

Total pass receptions made by Frank Gore – Over 1′ -130

Will Frank Gore score a touchdown in the game -Yes -120

Will there be more points scored in – 2nd half + OT -½ points -105

What will happen for the 1st coaches challenge – Overturned -115

Will there be a score in 1st 7min 30sec of 1st quarter – No +135

RANDY MOSS (SF) FIRST RECEPTION
(If No Reception-Under is the winner) – UNDER 11.5 -120

LAST SCORE OF THE GAME WILL BE:
TOUCHDOWN -200
ANY OTHER SCORE +175

TOTAL MADE THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS BY: 49ERS
**(3rd Down Conversion by Penalty does not count)
OVER 5.0 +120

Torrey Smith long rec OVER 27.5 yards -120

Ray Rice Rush Attempts – UNDER 17.5 -120

Vernon Davis OVER 3.5 receptions -120

Vernon Davis TD +160

Good luck!

If you will indulge me, I plan on using this section of my SCORCHING HOT NFL picks against the spread column to work through some issues. I haven’t discussed my thoughts on the Broncos game yet as it has been too painful to speak, so perhaps writing it out will help.

If you gave me the situation before the game that Denver was up 7 points and Joe Flacco had to take the Ravens down the entire field in one minute, I would have gladly been in that situation. I’ve seen numerous talk about Peyton Manning, John Fox etc. but the bottom line is the Broncos had a seven point lead at the end of the game everyone had done a good enough job to that point.

But then disaster happened. Much has been made of the absolutely terrible play of Rahim Moore on the ball that would eventually be the equalizing score. Don’t get me wrong, that was world-class bad safety play. But here’s the thing: At that point in the game basically only a hail-mary type of play beats you. The ball Flacco threw to Jacoby Jones wasn’t a strike, it was a rain-maker that was exactly like a prayer. As I re-watched the play this week, one thing sticks out to me. Why is Moore the only player back deep? Are you telling me that the design was to have 1-on-1 coverage of deep balls? Offenses pray for those kind of odds in that situation. Adams (the corner) peels back before the ball is in the air. Why? There is no reason everyone isn’t playing deep. While I think Moore deserves much blame, I find fault with the whole approach and haven’t seen much criticism of the scheme. We didn’t bring a blitz but somehow we didn’t have more than 1 person back deep to each side. It still hurts but look on the bright side, we all got one extra hour of Dan Dierdorf because of the overtime.

The first playoff weekend every game went UNDER the total. Last weekend every game went OVER the total. Favorites and dogs split at 2-2. With this much on the line, I think both games will get tight and we’ll see lower-scoring affairs so I’m siding with both UNDERS since I don’t think they both lose. I’m also disappointed that we were denied (IMO) better matchups of Seattle/SF and DEN/NE. As I said last week, I love playoff football but this weekend isn’t as exciting as the last two to me.

On to the picks!

Playoff record (11-5)

NFL

SAN FRANCISCO -4 vs. Falcons – If you have followed me at all this year, you know I don’t believe in Atlanta. Despite winning last week (and not covering), they were out-played nearly the entire game at home. All that changes this week is the visiting team is even better. I saw a quote from a Falcon defensive player a few days ago talking about how tired they were chasing Russell Wilson around. Good luck with that against this Kaepernick guy buddy. The main difference is that whatever magic spell Michael Turner used to look decent last week will not fly against the Niners defense. I grabbed SF-3 as soon as it came out and thought it might go higher than the -4 it has currently landed at most of the week. Brace yourselves, the Niners in the Superbowl is most definitely happening.

…Click here to read more

Soak it all in, this is as good as it gets in the world of NFL football. We’ve got one last glorious weekend of two games a day before we enter a sad world of three games left split between three weeks. And it’s a dark world my friends, full of made-up goofy storylines and “analysts” yelling at each other across a table. My favorite so far has been Peyton Manning in cold weather.

First weekend of the playoffs are in the books and everyone is who we thought they were. All four favorites covered. Not a huge surprise since the wild card teams were pretty weak this year. All four games went UNDER the total. This points more to the fact that the league’s best offenses had a bye and the teams that could score points were playing teams that didn’t need to pour it on to win.

Traditionally on this weekend, bettors tend to over-inflate the teams they saw play last week over the home teams on byes. Combine that with usually higher lines and you get a recipe ripe for everyone backing underdogs. That isn’t quite the case this season with only the Green Bay Packers being a popular underdog pick, followed by the Seahawks who are then followed by the Texans. Another interesting case is books usually take some measure to protect themselves against teases but this year the lines for Denver and New England have remained stable. I would think that numerous Denver/NE teases will be in play this weekend.

I am backing three favorites and three overs this weekend since I think the better competition will force more scoring. I personally can’t wait for the Denver game and forgot how exciting it can be to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. No, last year’s team didn’t feel that way.

One last note – I can’t recommend the FX series ARCHER enough. New season premiers next week so you still have time to watch it online or on Netflix on-demand. It has inappropriate humor, hot cartoons and spy-thriller storylines. I don’t know what more you could want in a 22 minute television show. Maybe other than puppies. Puppies make everything better.

On to the picks!

Playoff Record (5-3)

NFL

DENVER -9.5 vs. Ravens – I have plenty of Ravens hate. I dislike their players, scheme, coach and their colors. I’m not even going to pretend this is objective. What has changed since Denver went to Baltimore almost a month ago? Ravens got some D players healthy. I still fail to see how they will score consistently. When your only real option is Dennis Pita, it’s time to question backing them. God help Flacco if they get behind. Also, ESPN should try harder to find a story than Peyton Manning in cold weather. Also FYI, the temperature is now expected to be in the fifties and sunny for the game. #UnitedinOrange …Click here to read more

One of the best weekends of the year – NFL wildcard weekend. On paper, these games look competitive. These next two weekends are my favorite to cap of the entire season. Another great thing is we get to see what show/product is being pushed by having the same commercials in every game over and over. Remember that Frank Caliendo show? Yikes. This is the price we pay for being a target demographic. I hope it isn’t something Tim Allen related this year.

Before getting into the plays, I decided to take a look back at some preseason predictions I made. In August, I played several NFL team totals and divisional winners. You can see the article RIGHT HERE.

Out of nine picks, I got seven of them right. I successfully cashed in on the disappointing seasons of the Chiefs, Lions, Steelers, Jets and Saints. I also had a feeling about the rise of the Seahawks as well as the Texans dominating. However I had high hopes for the Bills this year that never materialized. One bet I didn’t mind losing was my Broncos UNDER wins. I thought the schedule set up worse than it turned out and it would take longer for Peyton Manning to become superhuman. Clearly, I underestimated and couldn’t be happier about it.

Rationale for this week is simple: Whoever wins the game usually covers the spread. Next week we will start to see the double-digit spreads but this week is filled with softer lines. These aren’t for the faint of heart, only the bold and the brave. Just like Batman. The animated series or Adam West style, either one will apply.

On to the picks!

NFL

CINCINNATI +4.5 vs. Texans – Perhaps it’s time we all just take a long, hard look in the mirror and say to ourselves “The Texans kinda suck” until it sinks in. What about how they have played makes me want to lay the points? Nothing. If they do win, I think it will be by a few points. Give me the team that no one seems to be discussing with the best player on the field not named Arian.

…Click here to read more

Season record (63-56-4)

Last week (3-6-1)

Like betting on preseason games? Then you are going to LOVE this week in the NFL. There is little rhyme or reason, you don’t know which teams are going to trot out starters or their season ticket holders and the lines are backwards.

God help you if you are playing in a fantasy league with Week 17 as your championship game. Why even bother? Instead of a playoff bracket, you should get a big wheel with everyone’s name on it, spin it and let it pick the winner. It’s roughly the same thing. I’m not even joking. With all of the planning, skill, strategy etc. it takes to win a league then you are going to leave it all up to playoff seeding to decide your fate. It’s madness.

If there ever was a week to take lightly, it’s this one. To reflect that, I have my fewest number of games picked this year. I also want to ramp up for one of my favorite betting occasions – the NFL playoffs. I’ll have sides and totals for each game.

Hope everyone out there is having a good holiday. Looking forward to what the next year brings.

On to the picks!

NFL

DALLAS +3.5 vs. Redskins – Like the feeling of a snuggie on a chilly, winter day – I really like having the hook here. I’d buy it if the line goes down to an even three. Too much on the line here for Dallas not to give their best effort. It’s not like Tony Romo to let us down in a high-pressured situation! He’s money in the bank.

…Click here to read more